Just 60 days ago that the young forward was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed as the Villa manager admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. During that period, as the club endured a six-game winless run, doubts remained if Rogers' form were a sign or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, though, the touchline reaction was far more favourable. After Rogers swept in his second to restore the lead for Villa, Emery tore off his coat, spread his arms and roared. Villa continued to ten wins in a row and despite not winning their opening six games, find themselves a mere three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough question to answer. History, the perceived status of the club, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant during this run, even as the wins have stacked up.
As per statistical analysis, in only two games have Villa had an xG more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a side that have put together a ten-match winning streak, the Villans appear weirdly vulnerable – but currently the margins are going in their favour.
The Rogers Recipe
Their recent policy appears to be to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their talisman to rescue them with two clinical strikes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred at West Ham, and once more against United.
Rogers' first goal came from a superb shot, bent precisely inside the upright from a wide position. The follow-up goal proved to be a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a pass from Watkins.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents managed more efforts and more shots on target. They have won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean might be the most significant challenge they will encounter over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the football past despairing goalkeepers week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path in which, instead of results trending towards performances, performances begin to trend towards results. Vital cogs could still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent may rediscover the force he showed during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defence.
This could contain the seeds for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would be in the top three for the holidays. And certainly earlier this season, nobody thought Rogers now would be leading a title charge and appearing as a crucial player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished precisely because it appears so improbable. As the hero faced the Villa faithful after the match conducting the cheers, he seemed to be thoroughly enjoying it. Which he fully merits. These spells do not happen often and must be appreciated.
